Electrolyte price "roller coaster"

Once the price rises too much, it will fall. This is the basic law of the development of the market economy. Lithium battery materials have experienced a big year of price increases in 2021, and they are "fierce" like tigers. Now many materials have fallen to the altar.

For example, the price of electrolyte has "ridden the roller coaster". At the beginning of 2021, the price of electrolyte was only about 45,000 yuan/ton; by the end of 2021, the highest price of electrolyte once jumped to about 120,000 yuan/ton. Since then, electrolyte prices have hovered at high levels, and then continued to decline for several months.

In fact, electrolyte prices have fallen more than 40% from their highs since March of this year. According to market data, the quotation of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte has been as low as about 6.3 yuan/ton in early July . Overall, since 2022, the price of electrolytes has mainly declined at a high level.

"The price of electrolyte mainly depends on the price of upstream electrolytes, additives and solvents, and is closely related to the competition pattern of the industry, and the prices of products in different application fields are quite different." Zhongyuan Securities Research Report said.

From the historical data, the price trend of electrolyte and the price trend of lithium hexafluoro phosphate show a great correlation.

In 2021, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will soar from about 107,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 565,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, an increase of over 400%. Correspondingly, the price of electrolyte has also risen. In 2021, the average price of ternary electrolyte will increase by 230% to 113,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte will increase by 170% to 110,000 yuan/ton.

In March this year, the average domestic market price of lithium hexafluoro phosphate reached a peak of about 600,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 7 times compared with the previous price of less than 70,000 yuan/ton. Since then, the price of lithium hexafluoro phosphate has begun to turn around, and it has shown a trend of falling and falling. And electrolyte prices have also come out of a similar market.

Regarding the future trend of electrolyte prices, Tinci Materials believes that there is a risk of falling prices. However, Tianci Materials said, "The price of electrolyte was high before, but we did not make any profit from this price increase. We have long-term cooperation with customers to lock the price, which is lower than the market price. Therefore, the price fluctuation has a negative impact on the company's Has little effect."

According to the performance forecast for the first half of 2022 released by Tinci Materials, its net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year is expected to be 2.8 billion to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 257.74%-283.29%; the performance has maintained steady growth. Another electrolyte leader, Xinzhoubang, is expected to have a net profit of 983 million yuan to 1.027 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 135%.

The Orient Securities Research Report pointed out that the current price of lithium hexafluoro phosphate has approached the cost line, and the price of lithium hexafluoro phosphate has bottomed out, which means that the price and unit profit of the electrolyte link will soon return. A company with a well-integrated layout in the electrolyte sector will have a strong cost advantage and long-term competitiveness.

From the demand side, the sales growth of new energy vehicles is  HYPERLINK still strong. Industry data show that in the first half of 2022, my country's new energy vehicle industry maintained a high growth rate, with production and sales exceeding 2.6 million units. From the perspective of battery installed capacity, in the first half of 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 110GWh, a year-on-year increase of 109%. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the installed capacity of power batteries will still have a good performance; and this will constitute a driving force for the demand for electrolytes.

In fact, many electrolyte manufacturers are accelerating production expansion. In July of this year alone, Tinci Materials disclosed two major investment projects, and planned to invest 1.522 billion yuan in the "annual production of 200,000 tons of lithium battery electrolyte reconstruction and expansion and 100,000 tons of iron-lithium battery recycling project" and "annual production of 7 tons." .50,000 tons of lithium battery basic materials project”.

Two months before that, Tianci Materials had also made big moves. In June, Tinci Materials plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in Jiangmen, Guangdong to build a "200,000-ton lithium-ion battery electrolyte project and a 100,000-ton lithium-ion battery recycling project". In May, Tinci Materials announced a 1.332 billion yuan project to build "an annual output of 300,000 tons of lithium battery electrolyte reconstruction and expansion and 100,000 tons of iron-lithium battery dismantling and recycling project."

Förutom Tianci Materials planerade Shi Dashenghua den 14 juli att höja högst 4,5 miljarder yuan, som kommer att användas för den årliga produktionen av 300 000 ton elektrolytprojekt (Dongying), den årliga produktionen av 200 000 ton elektrolytprojekt (Wuhan), 22 10 000 ton / år litiumbatterier materialproduktion och R & amp; D integrationsprojekt, 100 000 ton flytande litiumsalt projekt, 11 000 ton tillsatsprojekt per år etc.

I maj i år meddelade Jiangsu Guotai att dess dotterbolag Zhangjiagang City Guotai Huarong Chemical New Materials Co., Ltd planerar att inrätta ett helägt dotterbolag i Zigong, Sichuan med 200 miljoner yuan, och använda detta som bärare för att investera i den lokala konstruktionen med en årlig produktion av 300 000 ton litiumjonbatteri elektrolyt och återvinning av 2000 ton lösningsmedel projekt, den totala investeringen i projektet är 1,511 miljarder yuan.

Det rapporteras att Yongtai Technology, som kom från läkemedelsområdet, också aktivt lägger till elektrolyter. Bolaget meddelade att bolagets årliga produktion på 150 000 ton elektrolytprojekt förväntas tas i drift inom detta år, och holdingdotterbolaget Yongtaigao kommer att producera 134 000 ton flytande litium under det nya året. Saltindustrialiseringsprojektet förväntas starta försöksproduktionen i slutet av året eller i början av nästa år.

"Många företag har ökat sin användning av elektrolyter, å ena sidan kommer efterfrågan på elektrolyter att öka avsevärt i framtiden tack vare den storskaliga expansionen hos batteriföretag och bilföretag.Marknadsandelar, öka företagens utbud och fördjupa banden med tillverkare i senare led för att bättre uppnå lönsamhet och därmed ha en stark rätt att tala i termer av prissättning." Industrianalytiker sa.

Enligt prognosen för Minsheng Securities kommer den inhemska elektrolytproduktionskapaciteten att nå 1,91 miljoner ton 2022, och den kommer att öka till 4,07 miljoner ton 2025, med en sammansatt årlig tillväxttakt på 28,75%; utomeuropeiska företag är relativt konservativa när det gäller att expandera produktionskapaciteten, och det förväntas att utomeuropeiska elektrolytproduktionskapaciteten kommer att öka 2022, det är 190 000 ton och kommer att öka till 260 000 ton 2025, med en sammansatt årlig tillväxttakt på 10,58%. I framtiden kommer tillväxten av den globala elektrolytproduktionskapaciteten främst att komma från kinesiska inhemska tillverkare.